INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND BEARISH
SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
VERY SHORT TERM TREND BULLISH
Since finding strong resistance at the long term down trend line around 1290, gold has fallen sharply, making a low of 1213 a week ago. This low conicided with an uptrend line of support and since then gold has bounced $20 to trade around 1233.
Gold appears to be finding it difficult to break the 2011 downtrend line and sees strong selling whenever the line is tested – this has been the case for several years and suggests that the bears remain in control. Weak economic data out of China inrecent weeks and tumbling commodity prices are helping the bears.
Gold is now back below all the major moving averages on the daily chart which are all pointing down and appearing to accclerate to the downside. Until gold can break the long term down trend line that has now remained unbroken for 6 years, we will still be overall bearish for gold in the intermediate and long term timeframes. This line is now currently at approximately 1280 and grinding slowly lower.
Equities continue to attract funds and move higher, with the Dow at 21,000 and the S&P above 2,400. Oil has bounced higher after a sharp sell off and is now near $50 a barrel again.
Support can be found at 1226, 1214-1216, 1195, 1180, 1172, 1160, 1145, 1122, 1100, 1072 and 1045. The recent sell off and yet another rejection of the long term down trend line is bearish for gold in the long term timeframe and suggests a move towards the 2016 lows is likely, unless gold can break above the 2011 down trend line.
Resistance can be found at 1237, 1247, 1255, 1271, 1280, 1288 and 1292-1295. Gold needs to break the key resistance level around 1295 to give the bulls some momentum and long term control.